After watching Elon Musk's presentation, it felt like a modern version of "The Greatest Hero," except instead of riding on a cloud of seven colors, he was in a driverless taxi attending a "We, Robot" party.
Cybercab
(Network taxis) are fully autonomous vehicles without steering wheels or pedals. In the future, the cost of autonomous travel will be very low, almost becoming personalized public transportation. The operating cost of Cybercab is expected to be only 20 cents per mile, and including taxes and other fees, it may eventually be between 30 to 40 cents per mile. The price of this car might be less than $30,000, competing with rivals such as Waymo under Alphabet. Interesting business models may emerge in the future, for example, current Uber or Lyft drivers could manage a fleet of 10 to 20 cars, taking care of these vehicles like a shepherd tending to his flock. Everyone has their own fleet, and they are the "shepherds," responsible for looking after these cars.
We will gradually transition from supervised full self-driving to completely unsupervised full self-driving. At that time, you can sleep in the car and wake up when you've already reached your destination.
Musk hopes to roll out fully unsupervised FSD (Full Self-Driving) technology next year in Texas and California, initially applied to Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y models. Of course, all of this still requires regulatory approval. He also expects the Cybercab to go into production within the next few years, a vehicle highly optimized for autonomous transport. Although Musk tends to be optimistic about timelines, he estimates large-scale production should happen by 2026, at the latest no later than 2027.
Musk further elaborated on the advantages of autonomous driving technology. He pointed out that millions of Tesla cars are providing training data for the system, equivalent to simultaneously experiencing the driving experiences of millions of people and handling various complex road conditions rarely encountered in a human lifetime. These massive amounts of data make computer driving far surpass humans. Computers do not get tired and can handle various extreme situations, with an estimated safety level 10 to 30 times that of humans. Tesla's solution is based on AI and vision systems, not relying on expensive equipment. The currently produced Model 3, Model Y, as well as S and X models, all have the capability for fully unsupervised full self-driving, which also means reduced production costs.
In addition, Tesla has introduced inductive charging functionality, meaning that driverless taxis do not need to be plugged in; vehicles can complete energy replenishment through inductive charging.
Interestingly, how all of this will change the cities we live in. When traveling around the city, you often see many parking lots and garages. In the world of autonomous driving, these parking lots can be transformed into parks. We can turn "parking lots" (Parking Lots 🚖) into "Parks" (Parks 🌳), releasing a large amount of green space. I believe this will greatly improve our urban living.
Robovan
This is a larger vehicle than the Model Y. If you need to carry more people or cargo, Robovan is the ideal solution. It can accommodate up to 20 people, or be configured as a freight truck for urban cargo transportation. Musk pointed out that this type of vehicle is particularly suitable for high-density transport scenarios, such as transporting sports teams to matches, or significantly reducing travel costs. He estimates the operational cost of this vehicle to be about 50 cents per mile.
Optimus
All technologies developed for cars, such as batteries, power electronics, advanced motors, gearboxes, software, and AI inference computers, can be applied to humanoid robots. The same technology, just replacing wheels with arms and legs.
Optimus is a multi-functional robot. Musk envisions that the mass production cost of Optimus in the future will be approximately between $20,000 to $30,000, possibly even cheaper than a car. This kind of robot can almost perform any task — from taking care of children, walking dogs, mowing lawns, buying groceries, to keeping you company and delivering drinks. Optimus is not only a housekeeping assistant but may also become a "friend" in life, with extensive uses, akin to R2-D2 and C-3PO in movies.
Elon believes that Optimus will become one of the most important products in history. There are 8 billion people on Earth, and he believes everyone will want to own an Optimus, perhaps even more than one.